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War in Ukraine: Many (big) losers, few (real) winners

More than two months after the start of the war in Ukraine, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, prospects for a rapid resolution of the war seem increasingly unlikely. As sanctions against Russia continue to pile up, a return to the pre-war situation seems illusory, even in the event of an early end to the conflict.

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⚡️ ExpressECO | Environmental risk is key to business strategy [#ExpressEco]

Coface’s Country Risk Assessment model now includes an environmental indicator. Our Economist Melina London explains how it works.

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Is the electric vehicle metals boom sustainable?

The metals used in electric vehicles, such as lithium, cobalt and copper, are at the heart of the revolution currently taking place in the automotive industry. But imbalances between supply and demand are pushing up their prices, even though the market share of electric vehicles remains modest. In its latest analysis, Coface does not foresee any major changes in these price trends over the next two years.

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Germany: More insolvencies in the pipeline, despite significant aid

Insolvencies in Germany dropped significantly in 2020 compared to 2019 - despite the worst recession since 2009.

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China: rising payment risks in construction and energy sectors despite stronger economic outlook

Coface expects an increase in bond defaults and insolvencies in 2021, especially among sectors that accumulated higher cash-flow risks in 2020 amid a slowdown in credit growth.

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Coface report looks at China and Australia’s trade relationship

The China-Australia bilateral relationship deteriorated sharply over 2020, with China imposing trade restrictions on a number of Australian exports. But there are growing concerns that an escalation of bilateral tensions will see China hardening its stance towards Australia.

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The political risks of lockdown in the Netherlands and Germany

Coronavirus containment measures are leading to social unrest in many countries, especially in the Netherlands and in Germany. Watch our video to learn more.

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COVID-19, a catalyst for political risks

In addition to our Q3 2020 Country & Sector Risk updates, Coface's Political Risk Index highlights a dual trend: a decrease in the risk of conflict at a global level, but an increase in the risk of political and social fragility.

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German companies have switched to “crisis-mode” and offer less payment terms

German companies want to cash in as early as possible, according to the fourth edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany, conducted in July and early-August 2020, with 753 participating companies located in Germany.

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United States: Two-speed business bankruptcies

As the COVID-19 epidemic hits the United States very hard, Coface forecasts in its baseline scenario that the country's GDP will contract by 5.6% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.3% in 2021. Nevertheless, this forecast is threatened by the resurgence of the outbreak in several states, which are already pausing or even reversing the resumption of activity after the extensive lockdown of April.

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Post-pandemic production relocation: an opportunity for CEE countries?

Foreign trade and inclusion in supply chains had already increased in recent years, supported by EU membership by most CEE (Central and Eastern European) countries in 2004.

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Global Transport: What does the future hold beyond COVID-19?

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a mobility crisis, mainly because of physical distancing requirements and the necessity to avoid confined spaces, to limit the virus’propagation. This has had a disastrous impact on the global transport sector, with air passenger transport being the most affected segment.

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Country and Sector risks Barometer - June 2020: From a massive shock to a diversified recovery

Coface forecasts that the recession in 2020 (a 4.4% drop in world GDP) will be stronger than that of 2009. Despite the recovery expected in 2021 (+5.1%) – assuming there is no second wave of the coronavirus pandemic – GDP would remain 2 to 5 points lower in the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom, when compared to 2019 levels.

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Coface Barometer: COVID-19 - heading towards a sudden global surge in business insolvencies

At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic. Its repercussions have created a double shock – supply and demand – that is affecting a large number of industries in all over the world.

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Poland Payment Survey: reduced payment delays, but a challenging outlook

Despite the economic slowdown, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in Poland shows that payment delays have systematically shortened since 2017 – but the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Polish economy remains to be seen.

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COFACE CAPITALIZES ON ITS STRATEGIC SUCCESSES AND LAUNCHES BUILD TO LEAD, ITS NEW 2023 STRATEGIC PLAN

Build to Lead will broaden and deepen the business and cultural transformation initiated in Fit to Win. In particular the new plan will: Continue to strengthen risk management and underwriting discipline; Improve service, and commercial and operational efficiency; Invest in select growth initiatives in trade credit insurance as well as in specialty lines; Maintain balance sheet strength.

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THE GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY AND ENHANCED REGULATIONS: A VERY STEEP PATH AHEAD

Hit by increasingly stringent regulations, particularly for environmental purposes, the global automotive industry is facing a downturn and is being forced to reinvent itself.

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Turkey Payment Survey 2019: better picture in payment term but companies remain cautions regarding economic prospects

Right after the recession that the economy went into during the second half of 2018 the private sector remains mixed in terms of the economic outlook.

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Broker Portal, Coface’s new digital interface for its brokers

Coface launches its new portal for brokers, offering a new experience to its partners in the development of their business around the world.

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Agri-food sector outlook: in a global economy marked by protectionist tensions, what does the future hold?

Central to the current trade tensions, notably between the USA and China, the global agri-food sector is impacted by knock on effects, notably via downward trends on the prices of key agri-food commodities, such as soybean. Coface has conducted an in-depth analysis of future trends in this market.
A particularly strategic sector, agri-food (along with ICT) is one of the sectors key to the current trade war between the United States and China. Recently, Chinese authorities have taken steps to ban all agri-food imports from the United States, in response to the tariff increases announced by the Trump administration

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